A Very Weak Economic Recovery - forex news trading academy review

A Very Weak Economic Recovery ~ forex news trading academy review

A Very Weak Economic Recovery

By Elliott Wave International

Editors note: The following article is excerpted from Elliott Wave Internationals new free report, "U.S. Economy Still on Life Support." For years, the government has manipulated its unemployment statistics to line up with its claim that the economy has recovered strongly. But thats not ALL the government is hiding from you. From foodstuffs, to crude oil prices, to GDP, the numbers and analysis reported by the government and mainstream financial press are misleading at best, downright falsehoods at worst. Get the hidden truth -- click here to read the full two-part report now >>
For years, the government has been manipulating its unemployment statistics to line up with its claim that the economy has recovered strongly.
Jim Clifton of Gallup finally couldnt stand it anymore and wrote a terrific op-ed on the subject. Here is the meat of it:

If you, a family member or anyone is unemployed and has subsequently given up on finding a job--if you are so hopelessly out of work that youve stopped looking over the past four weeks--the Department of Labor doesnt count you as unemployed. Thats right. While you are as unemployed as one can possibly be, and tragically may never find work again, you are not counted in the figure we see relentlessly in the news--currently 5.6%. Right now, as many as 30 million Americans are either out of work or severely underemployed. Trust me, the vast majority of them arent throwing parties to toast "falling" unemployment.
Theres another reason why the official rate is misleading. Say youre an out-of-work engineer or healthcare worker or construction worker or retail manager: If you perform a minimum of one hour of work in a week and are paid at least $20--maybe someone pays you to mow their lawn--youre not officially counted as unemployed in the much-reported 5.6%. Few Americans know this.
Yet another figure of importance that doesnt get much press: those working part time but wanting full-time work. If you have a degree in chemistry or math and are working 10 hours part time because it is all you can find--in other words, you are severely underemployed--the government doesnt count you in the 5.6%. Few Americans know this.
Theres no other way to say this. The official unemployment rate, which cruelly overlooks the suffering of the long-term and often permanently unemployed as well as the depressingly underemployed, amounts to a Big Lie.
--Jim Clifton, Gallup.com

The following chart depicts the substantial decline in employment since 2000.

Notice that the recovery in jobs during the stock market rally of 2003-2007 was only about 1/3 of the decline from 2000-2003. The recovery during the even longer and bigger rally of 2009-2014 has been about 40% of its preceding decline. In both cases, the recoveries have been weaker than the declines, despite new highs in the major stock averages both times.
Editors note: This article is excerpted from Elliott Wave Internationals new free report, "U.S. Economy Still on Life Support." For years, the government has manipulated its unemployment statistics to line up with its claim that the economy has recovered strongly. But thats not ALL the government is hiding from you. From foodstuffs, to crude oil prices, to GDP, the numbers and analysis reported by the government and mainstream financial press are misleading at best, downright falsehoods at worst. Get the hidden truth -- click here to read the full two-part report now >>

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Eurusd Could Rally In A Decade - forex trading alerts review

Eurusd Could Rally In A Decade ~ forex trading alerts review

On 19th March 2015, I posted an analysis on why price could possibly come to the end of the long term bearish correction which lasted for about 7 years and dragged Euro from 1.6 to 1.1 ( more than 5500pips). Read here

We could also note the preceding bullish impulsive move from 2000 to 2008 ( a period slightly more than 7 and half years) that took Euro from 0.8 to 1.6, about 7800pips.

 

The retracement is about 70.7% ( infact trapped between 61.8% golden ratio and the 70.7% square golden ratio) retracement of the preceding bullish impulsive move ( move from 2000-2008). 

 

The 70.7% retracement supporting price movement shouldnt be surprising if we also take note that the ratio of 5500pips to 7800pips is about 0.707.

The Origin of the square golden ratio 0.707

 

Whether this is a coincidence or price is speaking in mathematical ratio, only time will tell.

 

This long term retracement has completed a double zig-zag corrective pattern and price is expected to rise in another years of bullish trend to break above 1.6 (Year 2008 high). 

 

 

The prospective long term bullish trend will expectedly subsume the daily and intra-day bullish and bearish trendy and corrective actions.

 

Its still a big debate which decides the other; fundamental or technical analysis?.

Fundamental analysis claims to know why things happen from decisions made while technical analysis studies the behaviour and forecast the decisions years before they are even made.

If Euro rises against the United states dollar above 1.6  to 1.8 in about a decades time or more, I might have to believe the technicals are the winners.

 

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Price shakeouts of weak hands - forex.com trading signals

Price shakeouts of weak hands ~ forex.com trading signals

Forex Chart Patterns

4-hour Euro Dollar

1 hour Euro Dollar

5 min Euro Dollar Chart Analysis

Consolidation Patterns

Weak hands getting shaked out in Trading

The Euro moved up to the1.2329 resistance level (purple line-October 2008 low and 20 SMA on the 4-hour chart) and from there market resumed its down trend and the Euro created a new daily low.

On the 5 min chart (below) we see that consolidations very often consists of three swings (red circles). One of them occurred in the Asian session between 2 - 3 a.m. GMT and after termination market moved to the 100 % fib extension. Another one occurred at about 10 a.m. and this consolidation is also the left shoulder of the Head and Shoulder pattern on todays market top, which took place at the 4-hour 20 SMA and the October 2008 low (purple line). The right shoulder is also a three swing consolidation and after termination the Euro penetrated the brown neckline. However, market consolidated below the neckline and slightly penetrated the neckline to the upside again. A reversal (failing of the H&S) or at least a shakeout got more likely due to the length of the consolidation below the neckline (Good trading opportunities at important levels/ pattern termination normally do not give much time for positioning as it is recognized by many traders and thus triggered fast).

The lengthy consolidation followed by the upside break of this consolidation through the neckline led to a kind of shakeout of the weak hands. The Euro found resistance at the 20 SMA on the 5 min chart and the price zone of the prior consolidation (right shoulder) so that the Euro resumed the down trend and triggered the H&S pattern. The 1 a.m. hourly candle triggered the stops below todays (green line) and yesterdays low (blue line) but the candle closed and formed a bull flag (on 5 min chart) at the recent hourly low at 1.2281 (blue line). The bull flag (blue circle) got triggered and market moved to the daily pivot and the 100 % fib extension on the 5 min chart. From there, the Euro resumed its down trend again. The 2 p.m. hourly candle closed at the daily S1 (red circle on hourly, weakening this level) and the following hourly candle starting at 3 p.m. moved below it and closed at Mondays gap opening at 1.2253 (brown line). Another timing setup occurred with the start of the new 4-hour candle at 4 p.m.. The Euro terminated its three swing consolidation pattern on the 5 min chart at 3:45 p.m. (red circle) and market moved lower again after the previous 4-hour candle closed and weaken the gap opening support (brown line). However, the Euro did not confirm the breach of the prior consolidation low at 1.2245 (green circle) and the Euro reversed and the 4 p.m. hourly candle closed at the gap opening (brown line). Market is currently consolidating around this level.

The pin bar at 8:25 a.m. after the penetration of the 1.2288 level (pink line-low of June 1st) led to a non-confirmation of the break and the Euro moved up again after the bull flag just above the pink line. A hint for the continuation was the close of the 9:20 candle at/above the daily pivot with the confirmation of the following 5 min candle.

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